The war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase as Russia intensifies its missile strikes and pushes further into the eastern part of the country. Moscow’s escalating military aggression is prompting serious discussions in Washington and among NATO allies. The central question: Should the United States approve the use of long-range missiles for Ukraine?

The potential decision could significantly alter the trajectory of the war, providing Ukraine with a crucial advantage, but it also raises the risk of further escalation, potentially involving NATO directly in the conflict.

Russia’s Missile Strikes and Air Superiority

In recent weeks, Russian forces have unleashed a brutal campaign of missile and air strikes. Russian fighter jets have begun using powerful three-ton glide bombs, devastating Ukraine’s frontline positions and neighboring cities. These attacks, combined with targeted missile strikes, have increased the pressure on Ukrainian defenses, particularly in the east.

The Russian military is leveraging its air superiority, and Ukraine is struggling to counter these overwhelming assaults. Kyiv’s frontline troops are holding their ground, but the tide could shift without immediate support in the form of advanced military technology.

Ukraine’s Plea for Advanced Weapons

In Kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy are engaging in high-level talks with Ukrainian leaders to address the growing crisis. At the forefront of these discussions is Ukraine’s urgent request for long-range missile systems like the US-made ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System). These advanced weapons can strike targets up to 300 kilometers away, which would allow Ukraine to target Russian airbases and infrastructure deep within occupied territory.

Currently, Ukraine is relying on British-donated Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 250 kilometers. Although effective, these have only been used against Russian targets in Ukrainian-held territories, limiting their strategic impact.

Ukrainian military officials argue that acquiring long-range missiles is vital to breaking Russia’s offensive and neutralizing the missile-launching sites responsible for devastating Ukrainian cities. This request, however, presents a complicated dilemma for Western allies.

The US Faces a Tough Decision

The Biden administration is weighing the potential consequences of sending long-range missiles to Ukraine. While these weapons could help Kyiv turn the tide of the war, the risk of escalation is significant. Moscow has repeatedly warned that such a move would cross a dangerous line, heightening the risk of a wider conflict that could draw NATO directly into the fray.

Despite these concerns, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to meet with President Biden to discuss the removal of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons. The Biden administration has maintained that it is carefully considering the situation, balancing its support for Ukraine against the potential for increased hostilities with Russia.

“We’re working that out right now,” said a US official when asked about the status of the decision on long-range missiles.

Risks of Escalation and Global Impact

Russia has been vocal in its opposition to Western military aid to Ukraine, especially the provision of long-range missiles. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that sending these weapons would provoke an arms race and escalate tensions across Europe and beyond. He has also warned that this move could destabilize not just Europe but also other regions, including the Asia-Pacific.

Moreover, recent accusations that Iran is supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles have complicated the situation further. While Tehran has denied these allegations, the potential for Russian forces to gain additional firepower from Iranian sources adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile conflict.

Strategic Consequences of Long-Range Missiles

If the US and its allies decide to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles, the war could take a dramatic turn. These weapons would enable Ukraine to strike Russian forces well beyond the current frontlines, including crucial supply depots, airbases, and command centers within Russian-held territories. This could weaken Russia’s ability to sustain its offensive and potentially shift the balance of power in Ukraine’s favor.

However, such a decision would likely trigger a severe response from Russia, which could escalate its military efforts and even target Western interests. The risk of NATO being drawn into a direct confrontation with Moscow would rise significantly, increasing the stakes for the entire region.

Conclusion: A Critical Decision Looms

As the conflict in Ukraine escalates, the US and its allies face a critical decision. Providing long-range missiles could offer Ukraine a much-needed lifeline, but it also raises the specter of a broader, more dangerous conflict. With Russian forces pressing their advantage and Ukraine’s calls for help growing louder, the coming weeks could define the next chapter of this war—and the future stability of Europe.